Friday was an interesting day. It was the first triple witching of the year and it did not disappoint! The last hour was very active as it took a nose dive and then climbed the last 20 minutes of the day. It still did not change anything on the hourly chart. We are still in a fairly orderly downward trend that started the end of February. IF it holds this channel, we should see some sort of bounce on Monday.
The market is sitting just below support levels and will need to recover here if we are going to move up.
Looking at breadth indicators, they are at levels where the market has a tendency to bounce. That seems like the next direction in the short run. If it cannot break this downward channel, 6450 looks like it will be the next battle ground to see if the bulls can regain some ground.
Capitalized NHNL is currently overdone to the downside:
So is the Monthly NHNL
The rolling 52 week NHNL is also squarely negative and has been so for a couple weeks. No idea if this is a normal pull pack or if the market is entering a bear market. I seem to think that we may be headed for a correction, but not a full on bear market. Stock prices are still historically high and a need a breather.
